Northwestern vs Penn State: History, Predictions & Odds

Northwestern stunned Penn State with a 22-21 upset on October 11, 2025, flipping the script on a series where Penn State had dominated for three decades. The loss leaves you wondering whether Northwestern has finally found its footing, or whether Penn State simply had an off day.

Recent Game Result: Northwestern 22-21 Penn State (Oct 11, 2025) · Series Leader: Penn State 16-6 · Next Matchup: Oct 2, 2026

Key statistics for both teams in this matchup are summarized in the table below.

Who is favored, Northwestern or Penn State?

For the October 11, 2025 matchup, Penn State entered as a heavy favorite with a -21.5 point spread, according to FOX Sports betting analysis. The moneyline reflected even greater disparity: Penn State -1538 to -1695 versus Northwestern +910 to +936, implying a 93.9% win probability for the Nittany Lions.

Current odds and predictions

The Data Skrive prediction model favored Penn State 24-23, per FOX Sports college football predictions. That forecast proved wrong, but not by much—the actual final score was Northwestern 22, Penn State 21.

The over/under total was set at 47.5 points, and the final combined score of 43 fell just under that mark.

Key factors influencing the favorite

• Penn State’s 20th-ranked scoring offense faced Northwestern’s 95th-ranked scoring defense in 2025, per FOX Sports college football analysis.
• Penn State was 0-5 against the spread entering the game; Northwestern was 3-2 ATS, according to Fox Sports PGH regional sports media.
• Both teams entered at 3-2 overall, per FOX Sports betting coverage.

Has Penn State ever lost to Northwestern?

Yes, multiple times. Penn State’s all-time record against Northwestern stands at 16-6 in favor of the Nittany Lions, as documented by StatMuse sports statistics platform. Northwestern’s six wins represent a David-versus-Goliath dynamic that has played out across three decades of Big Ten competition.

Recent upsets

The most recent upset came on October 11, 2025, when Northwestern defeated Penn State 22-21 at University Park, PA, per StatMuse game records. Northwestern also won in 2022 at Happy Valley, and their largest victory in the series came on September 27, 2014, when they beat Penn State 29-6, according to Winsipedia college football reference.

Historical losses

Prior to 2025, Penn State was 16-5 against Northwestern. The loss dropped the Nittany Lions to 16-6 overall, per Penn State Athletics official university site. Northwestern’s official record shows five wins total from 1993 through 2025, per Northwestern Athletics official university site.

Penn State’s largest margin of victory in the series was a 49-0 shutout on October 19, 2002, per Winsipedia series data. That remains the most lopsided result in the matchup’s history.

The pattern here is clear: Penn State dominates at home, holding a 9-2 advantage in games played at University Park, according to Penn State Athletics official records. The 2025 upset happened at Penn State’s home venue, making the result even more striking.

Northwestern vs Penn State football history

The series began on November 20, 1993, with Penn State winning 43-21, per StatMuse series records. Over 22 total meetings, Penn State has averaged 31.8 points per game against Northwestern, while Northwestern has averaged 21.4 points per game in return, per StatMuse scoring statistics.

Key game results

• 2023: Penn State 41-13 win at Northwestern (Sept 30, 2023), per Penn State Athletics game notes
• 2022: Penn State 17-7 win at Happy Valley (Oct 1, 2022), per Winsipedia game history
• 2014: Northwestern’s largest win: 29-6 (Sep 27, 2014), per Winsipedia series records
• 2002: Penn State’s largest win: 49-0 (Oct 19, 2002), per Winsipedia margin data

Head-to-head record

Northwestern’s longest win streak against Penn State is two games, achieved in 2003-2004, per Winsipedia streak analysis. Penn State’s longest win streak is six games from 2005 through 2012, also per Winsipedia historical records.

In the last two pre-2025 matchups, Penn State outscored Northwestern 58-20, according to FOX Sports recent performance data. Northwestern’s series total points stand at 324 with an average of 17 points per game, per Northwestern Athletics official statistics.

The series has featured dramatic swings. Penn State historically averages 375.2 offensive yards per game versus Northwestern, per StatMuse offensive metrics. The 2025 game marked a significant departure from that norm—Northwestern’s defense held Penn State well below its usual output.

Who is Penn State’s biggest rivalry?

Penn State’s primary football rivalry is with the University of Pittsburgh (Pitt), a matchup that has been contested since 1993 and represents one of college football’s most heated regional rivalries, per Wikipedia encyclopedic reference. The Penn State-Pittsburgh series is often cited as the Nittany Lions’ most significant rivalry, with both schools located roughly 130 miles apart.

Penn State also maintains strong rivalries with Ohio State and Michigan as members of the Big Ten Conference, though these matchups are more recent in the program’s history following the conference realignment that brought Penn State into the Big Ten in 1990.

Top rivals ranked

• Pittsburgh (Pitt): Oldest and most regionally significant rivalry
• Ohio State: Premier Big Ten title contender matchup
• Michigan: Historic Big Ten powerhouse clash

Penn State–Pittsburgh football rivalry

The Penn State-Pittsburgh rivalry has produced memorable moments and has been renewed in recent years after a hiatus, with both programs benefiting from the regional interest and competitive balance the matchup provides.

Unlike the Northwestern-Penn State series, which has been largely dominated by Penn State, the Pitt rivalry has been more competitive over the years, contributing to its intensity and fan interest.

Who is Northwestern’s biggest rivalry?

Northwestern’s most significant football rivalry is with the University of Illinois, a matchup known as the “Land of Lincoln Trophy” rivalry, per Wikipedia encyclopedic reference. The Illinois-Northwestern football rivalry is one of college football’s oldest, dating back to 1892, and represents a regional and academic rivalry within the Big Ten Conference.

Primary opponents

• Illinois: Oldest rivalry and primary geographic competitor
• Wisconsin: Frequent Big Ten West division matchup
• Minnesota: Another key Big Ten West rival

Illinois–Northwestern football rivalry

The rivalry with Illinois holds particular significance for Northwestern because both schools are located in the Chicago metropolitan area, creating a natural geographic and cultural rivalry that extends beyond athletics. The annual game between these two programs often carries extra weight for fans and players alike.

This context matters when evaluating Northwestern’s position in the Big Ten hierarchy. While Penn State competes in the Big Ten East, Northwestern competes in the Big Ten West, giving the Wildcats a different competitive landscape where they have had more success in recent seasons.

Performance metrics comparing both teams across the series are shown below.

The 2025 upset rewrote the narrative heading into the next chapter of this series. For Penn State, the loss exposed weaknesses that the betting markets had already been pricing in, and it raises questions about consistency on both sides of the ball heading into 2026. For Northwestern, the win validates the program’s ability to compete in Happy Valley, even if the sample size remains small.

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